NBIS Technical Analysis: V-Shaped Recovery, Resistance at $224

I'll pull the technical data on Nebi## $NBIS (Nebius Group NV) — Technical Analysis

Fundamental context: $47.06B market cap, Software-Infrastructure (Technology). Beta 4.44 (extreme volatility), short float 30.2% (elevated squeeze risk), ATR ~$27 daily. Fundamentals as of Mon, 03 Aug 2026. Earnings due Aug 12 BMO (~9 days out — keep an eye on rising IV).

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DAILY View

Bias: Bullish (bounce / mean-reversion) — Confidence: Medium Regime: Expansion → transition (correction within a bullish weekly trend, now recovering)

Price & Trend: After a violent pullback from the late-June high (~$290) down to a low of $145.80 on Jul 29, price has snapped back hard to $212.58 — a ~45% round trip recovered in three sessions. The bounce has reclaimed EMA8 ($191.56), EMA13 ($194.11), and EMA21 ($200.24), but remains below EMA34 ($205.79), EMA55 ($203.90), and the 50-day SMA ($224.11). Structure is a bear-flag recovery within a broader uptrend.

Key Signals:

• MACD histogram turned positive (+1.09) — momentum inflecting up after the washout; MACD (-9.79) converging toward signal (-10.88).
• RSI bounced from 34 (Jul 29) to 52.27 — recovering out of oversold, no exhaustion yet.
• Reclaimed EMA8/13/21 on heavy volume (28.5M vs 21.8M avg) — genuine buying, not drift.
• Bounce originated exactly at the Bollinger bottom ($158) / Keltner bottom ($161) + major swing low confluence near $146.

Confluence:

• Resistance: $204–206 (EMA34 + EMA55 cluster) → then $224 (50-SMA), then $236 (Bollinger/Keltner top).
• Support: $188–191 (EMA8/89 + prior shelf) → $169–176 (recent swing lows) → $146 (crash low).

Trade Plan:

• Bullish continuation: IF price holds above the EMA21 area (~$200) and clears $204–206, bias toward retesting $224 (50-SMA) then $236. Stop below $188–190.
• Invalidation: A decisive close back under $188 breaks the bounce and reopens the $169–176 zone.
• Given ~$27 daily ATR, keep stops wide; R/R here is marginal until $204–206 clears, so a Wait-for-confirmation stance around that resistance is prudent.

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WEEKLY View (higher timeframe — wins if it conflicts with daily)

Bias: Bullish — Confidence: Medium/High Regime: Trending (institutional uptrend, corrective pullback)

Price & Trend: Weekly EMA stack is fully bullish and spreading (EMA8 $205 > EMA21 $188 > EMA89 $117). Price closed at $212.58, comfortably above SMA50 ($136) and SMA200 ($73.73) — a strong institutional posture. The pullback tested but held above the weekly Keltner middle (~$188) and reclaimed it decisively this week.

Key Signals:

• MACD remains positive +23.80 but the histogram is contracting (-5.39) — the corrective impulse is still absorbing upside momentum, but the trend itself is not broken.
• Weekly RSI 57.92 — healthy mid-strength, no froth.
• Price reset to ~$146 intra-week low then reclaimed the weekly Keltner band into week's end — a bullish rejection of a retracement.

Weekly Patterns: This week printed a large outside-ish recovery candle (open $184, close $212.58) after last week's volatile $145.80–$204.57 range — confirming support held.

Trade Plan: Wait for a weekly close above $224 (50-SMA daily / prior breakdown zone) to confirm trend resumption toward the $236–240 area, then prior highs near $290. Invalidation: a weekly close back below $188 (Keltner middle). Use weekly ATR ($42) for position stops.

Bottom line: Higher-timeframe uptrend intact; daily is in a strong bounce that still faces a wall at $204–206 and $224. Confirmation above those levels is what shifts this from bounce to trend-resumption.

The chart shows the crash to $145.80 (Jul 29), the sharp V-recovery to $212.58, and the pending duel with the 50-SMA ($224) — the key level that separates a bounce from a full trend resumption.